A growing body of observational data and climate model projections point to a significant build-up of ocean heat across the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
Echoing these concerns at the international level, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres urged immediate global preparation as climate modelling confirms the rapid build-up: “El Nino is not just on our doorstep — it is inside the house and turning up the heat. And this is only a warm-up act. El Nino is strengthening — adding fuel to a planet already on fire with scorching heat domes, apocalyptic wildfires and record hot seas.”
“This exceptionally rapid warming during the summer is a strong signal that El Nino could become one of the strongest, if not the strongest, on record by late 2026 and the winter of 2027. El Nino is currently still in its developing phase and is expected to peak after October 2026, before persisting through early spring 2027. There is an increased risk of weaker rainfall during the latter part of the monsoon season, particularly in September and October 2026.
The Western Pacific, with the potential for increased storm activity, continues to disrupt and unsettle monsoon wind patterns over the Bay of Bengal,” he said.
SkyMet Weather’s research and data show that the system will finalise its transition to a strong El Nino category in August, creating a sustained multi-month window for ocean heat to feed into the atmosphere before the winter peak.
NDTV also spoke to GP Sharma, president of Meteorology and Climate Change at SkyMet Weather, who emphasised on the accelerating pace towards maximum intensity.
Leading global climate agencies, including the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) are warning that the ongoing El Nino cycle is on track to enter the “strong” category, with its peak intensity expected towards the end of the year, particularly during November and December.
