Dry winds have begun affecting parts of northwest India, raising signs of weaker rainfall. The monsoon season still has several weeks left, and rainfall in the rest of August and September will determine how much of the deficit can be recovered. New Delhi: India’s monsoon rainfall is presently 13% below normal.
The southwest monsoon normally runs through September. A weakening spell in August, particularly over northwest India, does not by itself mean the monsoon has begun its official withdrawal. Not yet, at least not officially. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) treats weakening rainfall and monsoon withdrawal as separate developments. The withdrawal process is declared only after specific atmospheric conditions are met, including a sustained reduction in rainfall and the development of an anticyclonic circulation in the lower atmosphere.
Because dry winds moving into parts of northwest India can mean the monsoon is entering a weaker phase without marking its formal exit, that distinction is important.
A state can record near-normal rainfall while particular districts still receive far less rain than normal. The national data therefore does not tell the whole story.
The impact will depend on where the rain is missing. Parts of western and central India have received relatively better rainfall, while several areas of the northern plains, northeast and southern peninsula have faced deficits.
Heavy Rain Forecast for Eastern India
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) reported on August 18 that a depression over Jharkhand and adjacent northern parts of Gangetic West Bengal is affecting local weather patterns. As a result, heavy to very heavy rainfall is anticipated in isolated areas of Odisha and Chhattisgarh. Rainfall-producing systems remain active in other regions as well, indicating ongoing weather variability across the eastern states.
