Tamil Nadu Chief Minister Vijay’s decision to grant women government employees one year of paid maternity leave for a third child has reignited a debate that would have seemed unusual a decade ago: are some Indian states now worried about having too few children rather than too many?
The policy is also part of a broader shift visible across southern states. Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N Chandrababu Naidu recently announced a new population policy that includes cash incentives of Rs 30,000 for a third child and Rs 40,000 for a fourth child. Tamil Nadu’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) stood at 1.3 in 2024, well below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman, according to the Sample Registration System (SRS) Statistical Report 2024. Kerala also recorded a TFR of 1.3, while Andhra Pradesh stood at 1.4, Karnataka at 1.5 and Telangana at 1.5. The region recorded 4.3 million births annually in 2001, falling to 4.2 million in 2011 and further to 4.1 million in 2024. Data from the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare’s population projections, reproduced in the India Ageing Report 2023, shows that Kerala’s elderly population, defined as those aged 60 and above, is projected to rise from 16.5 per cent in 2021 to 22.8 per cent by 2036.
South India is the only major region where annual additions of babies have declined over the past two decades, according to SBI Research’s Precursor to Census report.
