They have called for urgent strategic planning and disaster preparedness to mitigate the growing risks posed by glacial lake outbursts, floods, landslides and earthquakes, warning that the region could otherwise face destruction even worse than what unfolded in Nepal. Jammu and Kashmir’s extreme vulnerability to glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), coupled with its classification in seismic Zone 5.1, has made experts and researchers more vocal after witnessing the catastrophic destruction in Nepal.
Studies have highlighted a rising threat from high-altitude glacier lakes and unstable terrain across Jammu and Kashmir. Researchers have warned that a sudden glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF), landslide or other natural hazard could have severe consequences for downstream communities and critical infrastructure. These include Bramsar, Chirsar, Nundkol, Gangabal and Bhagsar lakes, located in the higher reaches of areas including Ganderbal, Kulgam, Kishtwar and Doda. Experts have cautioned that an outburst triggered by ice or rock falls, landslides, rapid changes in lake levels or the failure of natural dams could unleash huge volumes of water downstream. Such an event could potentially damage thousands of buildings, major bridges, roads and other critical infrastructure, including important hydropower installations. We also have lakes such as Sheshnag and Gangbal, which are relatively close to the Srinagar and Kashmir areas. In addition, there are numerous high-altitude mountain lakes across the Himalayas. The kind of catastrophe that occurred in Nepal could potentially happen here as well. Scientists have explained that in Nepal, a shelf of ice collapsed onto a glacial lake, triggering a massive and intense surge of water that rose to a height greater than a five-storey building. The incident resulted in significant loss of life and extensive damage to property. Contingency plans must be drawn up and preventive measures taken to assess whether such a disaster can be avoided or mitigated. Researchers have also raised concerns over the accelerated melting of glaciers in the region. The risk is particularly pronounced across parts of south and central Kashmir, Ladakh, Kishtwar and Doda, where high-altitude glacial systems, steep slopes and vulnerable settlements and infrastructure converge. Adding to the vulnerability is the region’s seismic profile. Jammu and Kashmir falls in a high seismic-risk zone, meaning a strong earthquake could potentially trigger landslides or destabilise glacial lakes and natural dams, creating a cascading disaster involving sudden flooding downstream. If such an earthquake were to occur, it could result in a major disaster. “As far as glaciers and glacial lakes are concerned, a powerful earthquake could potentially destabilise or breach some of these lakes, sending huge volumes of water downstream through the streams and rivers. We could face an extremely tragic situation, and the extent of the damage is difficult to even imagine. We hope that such a major earthquake does not occur, but we must be fully prepared for the possibility. With glacial lakes expanding, glaciers melting rapidly, unstable terrain and significant seismic vulnerability, experts have stressed the need for preventive planning and preparedness to reduce the potential impact of a major natural disaster in Jammu and Kashmir.
Because the region is facing a somewhat similar situation in terms of glacial lakes and the melting of glaciers in the higher Himalayas, it has also focused attention on Jammu and Kashmir. Such events cannot be ruled out, and authorities therefore need to be extremely cautious. At the same time, clear response mechanisms need to be prepared so that, if such an event does occur, the exact steps required to minimise the loss of life and property are already known. “This is the time to take preventive measures, formulate appropriate policies, and ensure their effective implementation so that we can minimise the impact of such disasters.
155 glacial lakes in Jammu and Kashmir have been assessed for GLOF-related risks, with five categorised as being at very high risk, according to recent survey data. Available data indicates that around 18,000 glaciers in Jammu and Kashmir are experiencing significantly accelerated melting, while several glacial lakes are expanding rapidly, increasing concerns over their stability. Ajaz Rasool, researcher and environmentalist, added, “We were earlier classified under Zone V, and now we are being placed in Zone 5.1, a new category carved out for areas that are particularly prone to earthquakes. There are forecasts that a major earthquake could occur in Jammu and Kashmir, potentially measuring around 8 on the Richter scale. A recent assessment has also identified around 43,000 square kilometres of area in Jammu and Kashmir as being vulnerable to landslides, underlining the scale of the challenge facing disaster-management authorities.
Ajaz Rasool, senior researcher and environmentalist, said, “We have several such lakes in Srinagar and across the Kashmir region, including Kausar Lake and Gangabal Lake in the upper reaches.
