The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has announced that the southwest monsoon is anticipated to start withdrawing from parts of West Rajasthan around September 19. This development comes as India approaches the conclusion of the rainy season, during which the country has experienced a rainfall deficit of 15 percent.
Monsoon Retreat Expected in West Rajasthan
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has announced that conditions are becoming favorable for the monsoon to retreat from parts of West Rajasthan around September 19. This date is slightly later than the normal withdrawal date of September 17 for the region.
Monsoon Rainfall Deficit Reaches 15 Percent
As of September 13, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) reports that the overall monsoon rainfall deficit has risen to 15 percent. This figure reflects significant fluctuations throughout the season.
In June, the deficit was as high as 40 percent. However, a surge in rainfall during July helped reduce this shortfall to 13 percent by the end of that month. Despite this improvement, the deficit increased to 14 percent by the end of August and has now widened further in September.
What the early withdrawal means
The impact has not been uniform across the country. Several states are facing considerably larger deficits. The expected withdrawal from West Rajasthan is the first formal indication that the southwest monsoon is beginning its seasonal retreat. But the process is gradual and does not signal an immediate end to the rainy season across India. Rainfall from the active weather systems could provide some relief in areas that are still facing significant deficits, although the size of the existing shortfall means several states are unlikely to recover fully.
For many regions, therefore, the next few days remain important. The south Peninsula has recorded the largest regional deficit at 28 per cent, followed by east and northeast India at 25 per cent. Central India has a 6 per cent shortfall, while northwest India is 10 per cent below normal. Punjab has recorded a 40 per cent shortfall, followed by Bihar at 35 per cent, Rajasthan at 25 per cent and Haryana at 23 per cent. The situation is also difficult in parts of southern and northeastern India, with Andhra Pradesh recording a 43 per cent deficit, Karnataka 29 per cent, Kerala 27 per cent and Tamil Nadu 26 per cent. Arunachal Pradesh has recorded a 42 per cent shortfall, while Meghalaya’s deficit stands at 59 per cent. Earlier reporting noted: Monsoon withdrawal to commence from Sept 19; rain deficit stays at 15%: IMD The withdrawal of the southwest monsoon is expected to commence from September 19, with the all-India monsoon deficit currently standing at -15%, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Monday, noting that the current monsoon was severely impacted by a strengthening El Nino, leaving several districts in the western, southern and northeastern part of the country in a rainfall deficit, which is unlikely to be bridged back. Earlier reporting noted: The monsoon is expected to retreat in west Rajasthan around September 19, compared with the normal withdrawal date of September 17. Last year, the withdrawal began as early as September 14. Isolated scattered rains are also likely across Uttar Pradesh till September 18, it said.
Earlier reporting noted: “Conditions are becoming favourable for withdrawal of Southwest Monsoon from some parts of West Rajasthan around September, 19, 2026,” IMD said in a statement on Monday, forecasting fairly widespread rains over Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit-Baltistan and Muzaffarabad from September 15-17; across Punjab, Haryana and Delhi on 16 and 17; isolated activity across west and east Rajasthan from September 15-17.
The IMD’s latest assessment suggests that while the monsoon is beginning to move towards its withdrawal phase, rainfall activity will continue over large parts of the country before the season eventually draws to a close.
Rain is still expected before the retreat
The withdrawal, however, will not mean an immediate end to rainfall across the country. Several parts of India are expected to receive rain over the coming days, with some areas likely to see heavy spells. Despite the approaching withdrawal, the weather pattern remains active across several parts of the country. A trough extends from Jharkhand through Gujarat, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh, while an upper-air cyclonic circulation is present over the Bay of Bengal near Odisha and West Bengal. These systems are expected to keep rainfall activity going across different regions this week. Rainfall activity is also expected to continue over parts of the south. Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Vidarbha could also see isolated showers during this period.
Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit-Baltistan and Muzaffarabad are likely to receive fairly widespread rain from September 15 to 17. Punjab, Haryana and Delhi could also see rainfall on September 16 and 17. Uttar Pradesh is expected to experience isolated to scattered rainfall until September 18, while parts of Rajasthan could see isolated rain between September 15 and 17. The IMD has forecast isolated heavy rainfall over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal, while Kerala and Mahe could see heavy spells until September 16. South Karnataka is also likely to receive isolated heavy rain on September 15. Further rain is expected in coastal Andhra Pradesh and Telangana between September 18 and 20. In eastern India, fairly widespread rainfall is likely over West Bengal and Sikkim until September 20. Bihar could receive similar activity on September 16 and 17, while Odisha is expected to see rain between September 19 and 20.
The IMD said a low-pressure area is lying over southwest Madhya Pradesh, southeast Rajasthan and north Gujarat.
