India’s peak power shortages have surpassed levels seen during this year’s summer heat waves as the potentially driest monsoon in 17 years crimps hydropower generation.
Hydropower generation fell 12% from a year earlier in the first three weeks of September, putting it on course for a fifth straight monthly decline and forcing coal plants to shoulder more demand.
The strain on the power system follows deficient rainfall during the monsoon. New Delhi sees hydro as crucial for expanding its non-fossil fuel fleet, but its dependence on weather and the environmental and social challenges of building dams have slowed growth. Slow capacity growth in hydro and nuclear capacity, along with insufficient energy storage, is forcing greater reliance on coal. Plants located near mines, among the most economical generators, held only about half the required coal reserves, data showed.
Nighttime shortfalls have surged to as much as 7.7 gigawatts this month, exceeding levels seen in April-May when scorching summer temperatures drove electricity consumption to a record, data from India’s power ministry showed. A powerful El Nino has kept precipitation during the June to September season 15% below normal levels. If the deficit persists, it would be the weakest monsoon since 2009. Hydropower accounts for about 9% of the country’s total generation capacity. The higher coal burn has depleted inventories at power plants to the lowest level in about three years as of September 21. About 40% of the 196 plants surveyed by the government had critical stockpiles of the fuel, with less than a quarter of their required inventories, data showed.
Coal India Ltd. needs to accelerate shipments, particularly to those lower-cost plants that are facing supply crunch, said Rupesh Sankhe, senior vice president for research at Elara Capital India Pvt., adding that the railways must also provide adequate wagons to move the fuel.
