But Israel recovered in an instant and launched a massive counterattack into Gaza. Israeli intelligence had been tricked, and the military had been caught off guard. It was also felt that a crucial red line had been crossed this time and that the episodic nature of conflicts in Gaza or the West Bank, like in the past decade, could not be allowed to happen anymore. The threat had not only to be dealt with but eliminated forever.
When Hamas struck across multiple locations in Israel on October 7, 2023, there was a sense of disbelief, shock, and fear. Driven by a collective sense of rage and revenge over the brutal killing of 1,140 people and 251 hostages in the terror attack, Israel vowed to eliminate Hamas from the face of the Earth and raze Gaza to the ground.
What followed thereafter was the most brutal and punishing military campaign by the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF), eliminating Hamas, entering and occupying Gaza, cutting off food, water, and medical supplies to Gaza, and destroying weapon caches and hideouts of Hamas deeply buried in an extensive underground tunnel network. The IDF operations, however, did not remain limited to Gaza. It took on all threats on its borders – Hezbollah in Lebanon, Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) and its affiliates in the West Bank, and the Shiite militias in Syria and Iraq. Even Houthis operating from Yemen were in the crosshairs of the IDF. However, after seven months of war, the situation remains stalemated, Iran is defiant and holding on, the US has suffered heavy losses, and its pride has been hurt more than once as the Strait of Hormuz remains blockaded and the Gulf nations are utterly disappointed at the failure of American security guarantees. Hezbollah was completely decimated in the Gaza war. To start, its senior military commander and No. The ouster of President Assad in Syria also added to the effect, as it cut off a crucial supply route to Hezbollah from Iran. What happened thereafter? Did Hezbollah collapse? The answer, once again, is ‘No’. Others too in the Axis seem to be resurgent. Already, there have been a number of incidents when missiles and rockets from these militias have inflicted huge damage on American forces. In the West Bank, the clashes between the IDF and the PIJ and its affiliates continue with no decisive victory and, in Syria, the Al Sharaa government has slowly started asserting itself. He raised the issue of regular Israeli incursions into Syria at the UN General Assembly last month, saying that it violates Syria’s territorial integrity and sovereignty. Plus, the occupation of the Golan Heights by Israel too is likely to become a conflict point. (Col Rajeev Agarwal is a foreign policy and security expert and author of book, ‘Between Tehran and Tel Aviv: Gaza’s Story of Unending War’)
Over the course of the next two years, Israel and Iran exchanged missile and drone strikes more than once, culminating in the ‘12-Day War’ in June 2025, when the US joined Israel and bombed Iran’s nuclear sites. And, as the Israeli Prime Minister said on 6th October 2024, on the eve of the first anniversary of 7th October, Israel was fighting a ‘Seven Front War’. When the ceasefire finally took effect on 10th October 2025, Israel had succeeded to a large extent in its goals tactically, although a decisive strategic victory still eluded it. Hamas had been defeated and its key leadership eliminated, Hezbollah had been brought to its knees, President Assad in Syria had been ousted, and a former Islamic State (IS) terrorist, Al Sharaa, had been placed in command, PIJ was being hunted and destroyed in the West Bank, and even Iran had been targeted and its nuclear programme ‘obliterated’ in the 12-Day War. So, when Israel and the US launched pre-emptive strikes into Iran on February 28, 2026, the resistance should have been minimal and the victory quick and decisive. 2 in the hierarchy, Faud Shukra, was assassinated in Tehran on 30th July. The pager attacks on 17th September, successive elimination of senior leadership culminating in the assassination of its charismatic leader Hassan Nasrallah on 27th September 2024, was the final nail in the coffin, beyond which there was no hope that Hezbollah would recover. When it signed a ceasefire deal in November 2024, it was supposed to be the end of Hezbollah as we knew it. In Iraq, with the full withdrawal of US forces from Iraq on September 30, the Popular Mobilisation Front (PMF) and other militias are likely to get a new lease of life under a weak Iraqi government and strong Iranian support.
