Chief Minister Vijay’s district visits are increasingly acquiring political significance, coming as they do ahead of a series of crucial Assembly by-elections that could determine how comfortably his minority government functions.
The timing and choice of destinations have fuelled speculation about whether the Chief Minister is also using government engagements to establish a political presence ahead of the contests. The ruling TVK, however, has maintained that the programmes are centred on public welfare.
PERUNDURAI: WELFARE PROGRAMME AND POLITICAL OPTICS With woman constituting a key chunk of TVK voter base, today’s Perundurai programme is officially projected as a major women’s empowerment initiative. The two visits have something in common beyond their official agenda – both districts have Assembly constituencies awaiting by-elections. Pudukkottai has Viralimalai, while Erode has Perundurai. Perundurai fell vacant after its AIADMK MLA S Jayakumar resigned and subsequently joined the ruling TVK. Similarly, Viralimalai’s AIADMK MLA and former minister C Vijayabaskar resigned and switched to TVK. Vijayabaskar faces corruption allegations in the gutka scam dating back to the previous AIADMK regime. The timing and choice of destinations have fuelled speculation about whether the Chief Minister is also using government engagements to establish a political presence ahead of the contests. The ruling TVK, however, has maintained that the programmes are centred on public welfare. The new bus terminus was among the prominent inaugurations. The government currently depends on the support of the Congress, which has five MLAs, and the VCK and IUML, which have two each. The CPI and CPM, with two MLAs apiece, extend support from outside the government. There are five more constituencies awaiting by-elections – Viralimalai, Perundurai, Karur, Tiruchy East and Ambasamudram. it would significantly improve its position in the Assembly and reduce its dependence on supporting parties While that would still leave it short of a majority on its own. That makes the upcoming by-elections politically important for Vijay, beyond the individual constituencies. BY-POLL RESULTS: DMK RESILIENCE AND TVK’S RURAL GAINS The recent victories in Dharapuram and Madurantakam have given TVK two additional MLAs. But the results have also offered some interesting electoral signals. Both constituencies had been represented by AIADMK legislators who switched to TVK and contested the by-elections on its ticket. They retained their seats, but the victory margins were not particularly large for a ruling party. By-elections in Tamil Nadu have traditionally tended to favour the party in power, often with substantial victory margins. Against that backdrop, the two results, though victories for TVK, also point to the DMK retaining much of its electoral support despite the change in political circumstances. At the same time, TVK has certainly improved its vote share in these largely rural constituencies, where its organisational and electoral presence was relatively limited. This suggests a degree of resilience in the DMK’s electoral base, even as TVK made significant gains. There is another significant takeaway. Several parties that campaigned alongside the DMK in the Assembly elections, including the Congress, VCK, MDMK and IUML, have since moved to the TVK-led alliance. Yet, the DMK’s vote share remained largely intact in these two by-elections. In other words, while TVK has made appreciable gains and retained both seats, the results also show that the DMK remains electorally relevant and that political realignments at the leadership level do not automatically translate into a corresponding transfer of votes. For Vijay, the challenge in the remaining five seats is not merely to add to his party’s numbers but also to establish that its electoral support extends beyond former AIADMK legislators who have joined it. He has described the programme as a historic initiative, pointing to schemes such as Vetri Payanam and Maaman Seethanam as part of the government’s efforts towards women’s empowerment. The Chief Minister’s travel arrangements have also become a subject of public discussion. The larger political question is whether these official engagements can translate into electoral gains when the by-elections are eventually held. The stakes could extend beyond the immediate question of numbers in the Assembly.
The next round of by-elections, therefore, will be about more than filling vacant seats. After visiting Pudukkottai on Monday, where he inaugurated a new bus terminus and government projects worth over Rs 60 crore, Vijay is in Erode’s Perundurai today for a government programme involving women’s self-help groups. In Pudukkottai, Vijay also laid the foundation stone for projects worth Rs 11.72 crore, held a roadshow and received petitions from the public. THE NUMBERS GAME: WHY THESE BY-POLLS MATTER The political calculation behind these visits becomes clearer when viewed against the numbers in the 234-member Tamil Nadu Assembly. The TVK won 108 seats in the Assembly elections. Vijay subsequently vacated one of the two constituencies he had won, bringing the party’s effective strength down to 107. With its victories in the recent Dharapuram and Madurantakam by-elections, the party’s tally has risen to 109. But that is still nine short of the 118 required for a simple majority in the full House. If TVK wins all five, its strength would rise to 114. In Dharapuram, P Sathyabama defeated the DMK’s S Suganya by 9,471 votes. In Madurantakam, K Maragatham Kumaravel won by 20,040 votes over the DMK’s I Paranthamen. Its vote share rose from 23.23 per cent to 37.02 per cent in Dharapuram and from 31.32 per cent to 39.96 per cent in Madurantakam. The DMK’s vote share, meanwhile, dipped only marginally – by 0.42 percentage points in Dharapuram and 1.03 percentage points in Madurantakam. Revenue Minister K A Sengottaiyan has said that Rs 1,110 crore will be allocated through various schemes for women’s self-help groups. Vijay has been using chartered aircraft for his domestic visits, with criticism on social media questioning the optics and expenditure involved in flying to different parts of the state for government programmes, including inaugurating a bus terminus and projects worth over Rs 60 crore. Government sources, on the other hand, point to the larger welfare and development programmes being implemented during these visits, including the Rs 1,110-crore initiative involving women’s self-help groups. A TEST BEYOND THE ASSEMBLY: THE 2029 FACTOR For Vijay, the five pending constituencies represent an opportunity to strengthen his party’s legislative position. These by-elections could also offer an early reading of the political alignments and electoral strength of the major players ahead of the 2029 Lok Sabha elections. The DMK and its allies swept Tamil Nadu in both 2019 and 2024, winning almost all the parliamentary constituencies. They could offer an important indication of Tamil Nadu’s evolving political landscape ahead of 2029.
the results raise questions about the extent to which the former DMK allies have been able to transfer their earlier electoral support to the TVK While vote-share comparisons cannot establish how individual voters switched.
