India’s population may continue to grow for years, but its demographic profile is changing. Fewer children are being born, the share of older people is rising, and the country’s working-age population is approaching a turning point. The shift has prompted the Supreme Court to flag the long-term consequences of falling fertility, saying India needs to rethink population policies framed around fears of overpopulation.
The observation came while the court was hearing the plea of Mangala Bhimrao Ingle from Maharashtra whose election as sarpanch of Kakoda gram panchayat withing the administrative jurisdiction of Amravati division was set aside on the ground that she had more than two children. But beyond the legal question, the court’s observation points to a larger demographic challenge: What happens when a country that once worried about having too many people begins to grapple with an ageing population? TFR measures the average number of children a woman is expected to have during her reproductive years.
In a significant observation on Wednesday (November 4), the Top Court said laws penalising people for having more than two children had lost their relevance in view of the country’s changing demographic realities. The court pointed out that India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) had fallen from 3.02 in 2003 to 1.9 in 2024, below the replacement level of 2.1. The court has referred the matter to a larger bench for reconsideration of its 2003 ruling in Javed vs State of Haryana, which had upheld the validity of a two-child norm for contesting local body elections. The elderly’s share of the total population is projected to rise from 8.4 per cent to 14.9 per cent over the same period. At the same time, the proportion of children below 15 years is expected to decline from 30.9 per cent in 2011 to 20.1 per cent in 2036.
