Winter is still months away, but the heat may not disappear everywhere. A Climate Impact Lab forecast from the University of Chicago estimates that the current Super El Nino could be linked to an additional 2.39 lakh heat-related deaths globally in the next six months, from September 2026 to February 2027.
What India Will See
The impact is expected to vary across countries. Nigeria has the highest estimated number of heat-related deaths at 31,400, followed by Indonesia at 19,300 and Sudan at 17,500. India ranks fourth, with an estimated 15,800 heat-related deaths between September 2026 and February 2027. Brazil follows with 13,300. The report also notes that the El Nino is expected to continue through Northern Hemisphere spring 2027. Meanwhile, the El Nino probability is 100 per cent through February 2027, but it will drop to 61 per cent by mid-2027.
The Climate Impact Lab says measures such as heat warnings, cooling centres, hydration facilities, health-system preparedness and protection for outdoor workers can reduce the health risks from extreme heat.
