As the 31st UN Climate Change Conference takes place in Antalya, Türkiye, one question hangs over the negotiating rooms: energy transition in the world’s most populous country.
As negotiators meet in Antalya, the debate is shifting from whether India can grow cleanly to who will pay for it.
For Nicki Hutley, an Australian economist who has authored a paper titled ‘World’s Net Zero Cannot be Complete without India’s Net Zero’, the answer starts with a simple premise – whether India meets its climate targets is not India’s concern alone, she argues, it matters to every country in the world. In a conversation with NDTV’s Gaurie Dwivedi, she set out why the developed world should see India’s climate needs as an opportunity rather than a burden. India’s starting point is growth. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government has set a growth target meant to raise incomes for every Indian. That growth will need energy, and a great deal of it. The familiar framing pits that demand against emission cuts. She also notes that the trade-off is no longer a developing-world problem. Richer nations now face the same tension, driven by surging power demand from data centres. The dilemma India has been asked to resolve for years has arrived in the developed world too. If growth and decarbonisation can coexist, the binding constraint is finance. The numbers are large. Governments cannot carry that load alone, she argues. Private corporations will have to play an important role, and drawing private climate finance into India is essential. That is where Antalya comes in. Developing countries have long argued that the sum falls short, and a large chunk of it arrives as debt. Nicki Hutley’s central argument is aimed at the developed world. More than that, it is an investment opportunity. The framing matters. Climate finance debates have long been cast as a question of obligation: what rich nations owe for historical emissions. Nicki Hutley puts it in commercial terms instead. Capital placed in India’s clean-energy build-out is capital placed in one of the world’s largest and fastest-growing markets. The alternative is costlier for everyone. The price of failing to meet the Paris climate goals, she warns, will be felt by every country, not just the most vulnerable. For India, the test in Antalya is whether there’s finally adequate message turns into money on the table. Pledges have been plentiful. Funding has not.
NITI Aayog’s study, released in February, estimates that India needs $22.7 trillion in cumulative investment to reach net zero by 2070. Even with reforms, the country can mobilise about $16.2 trillion. That leaves a gap of roughly $6.5 trillion. By her estimate, about 60% of India’s funding needs will have to come from international sources. Climate finance tops India’s agenda at COP31, where countries are testing the promise made at Baku in 2024: $300 billion a year for developing nations by 2035.
Growth and clean energy, she says, can be pursued together. Getting more of it, Ms Hutley says, is a critical part of making the transition happen. Funding India’s transition, she says, is in their own interest.
