The National Capital Region (NCR) has once again plunged into a severe winter pollution crisis. As the capital braces to celebrate Diwali on November 8, 2026, thick layers of toxic smog cloud its skies. In response to rising pollution levels, the Centre’s air quality watchdog, the Commission for Air Quality Management (CAQM) invoked Stage II of the Graded Response Action Plan (GRAP-2) across Delhi-NCR on Monday.
experts warn that this winter poses an exceptional challenge due to global climate dynamics While seasonal drivers such as agricultural stubble burning and festive emissions routinely trigger Delhi’s post-monsoon pollution spikes.
As of 9:05 AM on Wednesday, November 4, the Central Pollution Control Board’s (CPCB) SAMEER app recorded Delhi’s overall Air Quality Index (AQI) at 379 (“Very Poor”). Several key hotspots-including ITO, Bawana, Alipur, Delhi Technological University (DTU), IIT Delhi, and Jahangirpuri-surpassed the hazardous 400 mark, entering the “Severe” category.
NDTV also spoke with Dr. Manoj Kumar, Analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), who echoed concerns about the prolonged risks posed by altered weather pattern. Dr Kumar explains, “El Nino could increase the risk of extended pollution episodes in Delhi this winter by altering local weather conditions over northern India. It weakens surface winds, meaning emissions from industries, power plants, vehicles, and other combustion sources cannot disperse effectively and remain trapped over the city for longer periods. Dr. Kumar added that if a shallow planetary boundary layer-the lower atmospheric layer where pollutants mix-accompanies these stagnant winds, pollution will become far more concentrated near ground level. Additionally, fewer Western Disturbances mean less winter rainfall, removing a crucial natural cleansing mechanism for airborne particulate matter. Kumar concluded. “However, this remains a potential risk rather than a certainty. El Nino does not generate pollution; it merely governs how existing emissions accumulate and disperse. Ultimately, actual air quality will depend on both local emission levels and prevailing weather conditions” he added.
The ongoing El Nino phenomenon in the tropical Pacific Ocean has intensified significantly, with sea surface temperatures running more than 3.2 degrees Celsius above average, according to an advisory from the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO). The WMO highlights an exceptionally high probability that this powerful El Nino will persist into early 2027-amplifying extreme weather risks, shifting global wind patterns, and altering thermal profiles worldwide.
“These combined conditions could increase both the frequency and duration of ‘Very Poor’ and ‘Severe’ air quality days,” Dr.
