It’s a double whammy for the troubled Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD). First, the BJP declined a poll alliance; now the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) has also decided to part ways and go solo in the Punjab battle.
The BSP supremo last week held a review meeting with senior party office-bearers from Punjab at the BSP Central Camp Office in Lucknow to discuss strategies to expand the party’s voter base in the state. “In a state where Dalits constitute roughly 32 per cent of the population – the highest share in India – this rupture carries more weight than the BSP’s modest statewide numbers might initially suggest. Despite its roots in Punjab, the party could not win the hearts of Dalit or Bahujan voters as it did in 1992,” says Prof Gurmeet Singh, a Chandigarh-based psephologist.
She made it clear that, much like in Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand, the BSP will contest elections in Punjab entirely “on its own strength” without entering into an electoral alliance with any other party. She stated that past alliances had caused the party losses both in terms of seats and vote percentage, which ultimately “lowers the morale of party workers”.
“BSP’s vote share shows that it is no more a big player. The BJP leadership may have avoided a poll alliance at this juncture but talks were on. However, no party in Punjab can polarise Dalit votes as they remain a scattered political force. The BSP has remained a persistent but limited player. Politically, the SAD preferred the BSP as an option. But this renewed partnership lasted less than two years.
So, will the Shiromani Akali Dal stand to lose Dalit votes as BSP goes solo in 2027? Analysts say ‘not much’, as BSP’s current vote share is just 1.77 per cent, but the party can impact SAD’s Dalit vote share in the Doaba region to some extent. For Shiromani Akali Dal, partnering with BJP was a better choice as its vote share is nearly 19 per cent. In 1997, the party broke with Mayawati’a party and joined hands with the BJP. They re-stitched a poll alliance with BSP in June 2021 after parting ways with BJP in 2020 over the three farm laws.
The final decision, as the state leaders say, will be taken by the party high command,” says Prof Gurmeet Singh.
Large sections have historically aligned with the Congress, while others have supported the SAD or, more recently, the Aam Aadmi Party.
