Winter could lose much of its usual chill this year as a prolonged El Niño event is expected to keep temperatures above normal across several parts of the world. The phenomenon could affect not only winter weather but also agriculture, water availability and the risk of extreme weather events.
In today’s episode of DNA, Rahul Sinha, Managing Editor of Zee News, conducted a detailed analysis of the possible impact of the prolonged El Niño and explained why the coming winter could be warmer than usual.
El Niño generally ends by September or October, but its extended duration this time could influence weather patterns from Asia and Australia to the Americas. The prolonged effect means the warming associated with El Niño could continue through December and January, potentially making winter less cold than usual. What is El Niño? El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon linked to unusual warming of surface waters in the Pacific Ocean. Under normal conditions, strong winds push warm surface water towards Asia and Australia. When El Niño develops, these winds weaken, allowing warmer water to remain on the surface of the Pacific. The warmer ocean then influences winds and atmospheric conditions, affecting weather patterns well beyond the Pacific region. The event is also being described as a ‘Super El Niño’, with experts warning that temperatures in December and January could even rise beyond current estimates. The American continent is expected to experience some of the strongest effects. India’s crops could face the heat The impact could extend well beyond temperatures. Agriculture is among the sectors that could be affected by a warmer winter. Higher temperatures could cause soil moisture to dry out faster. The lack of cold winter winds could also affect crop development and delay the time needed for crops to mature. Any significant impact on production could put pressure on food grain supplies and markets. Less snow in the Himalayas? The warming could also affect mountain regions and rivers. Reduced snowfall could have consequences for rivers, as melting snow in the mountains contributes to their water supply. The effects of the prolonged El Niño, however, may not stop there, with floods and storms also among the potential risks associated with changing weather conditions. Why flash floods could become a concern El Niño can reduce rainfall during its initial stages in some regions. At the same time, warmer conditions can contribute to the formation of low-pressure areas. Moisture-laden winds move towards areas of lower pressure. When these conditions come together, clouds can produce sudden and intense rainfall. Warmer ocean conditions can also contribute to the formation of storms over the seas, adding another layer of concern. UN calls for preparedness El Niño is a natural phenomenon and cannot be controlled by humans. Farmers have also been advised to consider crops that do not depend heavily on low temperatures. The UN has stressed the need for water conservation and has recommended maintaining adequate stocks of medicines to deal with illnesses linked to heat. As the world prepares for the possible effects of a prolonged El Niño, the words of renowned poet Sarveshwar Dayal Saxena from his poem ‘Sab Kuchh Bah Jaata Hai’ offer a stark reminder of nature’s power: “Cries float, sobs float. A child sitting on the rubble calls out to his mother. In the face of such extreme forces of nature, human beings can do little to stop them. But timely warnings, preparation and better management of resources could help reduce their impact.
The phenomenon can therefore have consequences for temperatures and rainfall across different parts of the world. As El Niño strengthens, the risk of flash floods can therefore increase in vulnerable areas. The focus, therefore, is on preparing for its possible consequences. The United Nations has advised countries to keep early warning systems in place so that droughts, floods and other weather-related threats can be identified in advance.
A United Nations report prepared by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) says the El Niño effect is expected to continue until February 2027. A powerful El Niño According to the UN report, this is the most powerful El Niño seen in the last 70 to 75 years. The level of heat associated with the phenomenon is being compared with that generated by El Niño in 1950, with its effects expected to continue through 2026 and the early months of 2027. Average winter temperatures in the United States could rise by up to 1.5 degrees, while Peru and Bolivia could see increases of between 1.5 and 2 degrees. The Indian subcontinent could record temperatures around 1.5 degrees above average, while Europe could also see temperatures rise by around 1.5 degrees. Wheat, mustard and pulses are among the crops grown in India during the winter season and require temperatures of around 10 to 20 degrees.
The UN report says snowfall could decrease in the lower ranges of mountain systems such as the Himalayas, with some hilly areas potentially receiving rain instead of snow.
